What was once projected to open close to Superman’s $125 million debut quickly ran out of steam, as Fantastic Four: First Steps bowed to a slightly lower-than-expected $118 million. Now, as the film wraps up its second weekend, its box office prospects have taken a sharper downturn.
Update Thursday AM: As of its second Wednesday, Fantastic Four: First Steps has made $211.9 million domestically, compared to Superman‘s $259.8 million in the same time frame, putting it a whopping $47.9 million behind the DC flagship film.
Looking specifically at the second full week’s Monday-to-Wednesday figures, Fantastic Four pulled in a combined $14.7 million (4.5 + 6.3 + 3.9), while Superman brought in $23.5 million (6.9 + 10 + 6.6) over the same period. That means Fantastic Four managed just 62% of what Superman earned during those three days—a sign of its sharper second-week decline.
The film brought in just $11.7 million on Friday and managed to scrape together only $38.6 million over the weekend, a steep 67% drop. (It had previously been projected to earn well over $40 million in its second frame before Friday’s numbers came in.) The final figure, however, came eerily close to the second-weekend performance of Captain America: Brave New World, which dropped 68% and went down as both a critical and commercial disappointment.
For context, Thunderbolts had a 56% drop in its second frame, while Superman held stronger with just a 53% decline. Despite being the highest-grossing Fantastic Four film to date, this significant drop signals a worrying trend of diminishing returns for MCU films, which were once considered box office gold.
While Marvel did deliver a solid film, something both fans and critics have acknowledged, the franchise’s box office ceiling seems increasingly clear. The movie is currently running 19% ahead of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania over its first ten days, but unless legs dramatically improve, it’s unlikely to outpace Superman or even reach Marvel’s mid-tier benchmarks.
Yes, superhero fatigue is real, and the Asian market specifically seems to have moved on from the genre, which really does put a dent in these movies’ worldwide total. Superman has suffered from the same, but what is really grim for the MCU is that the new Fantastic Four’s domestic box office has also not been showing any promise whatsoever. The movie scored an A- Cinemascore, which is usually an indicator of decent legs, but Fantastic Four’s drop is more akin to a movie with a B Cinemascore, which is really telling of how the general audience has lost faith in Marvel. Movies with similar Cinemascores in the last couple of years, like Superman and Twisters, have had tremendous legs, and even Beetlejuice Beetlejuice saw only a 54% drop, despite having a B+ Cinemascore.
Given that there are no major blockbusters hitting theaters until October, Feige’s decision to go head-to-head with Superman comes off as a bold, and arguably overconfident move. Sure, they took some wind out of Superman’s sail, but DC’s tentpole is still doing really solid business, while Fantastic Four came and went and has failed to dominate the conversation among the general audience. At this rate, it might even struggle to get to $275 million, which would be a poor outcome for all involved.
With the exception of 2020, this could be the first time since 2012 that a Marvel film could fail to hit the coveted $300 million mark domestically, and even more alarming is the fact that all three 3 MCU films this year could not break even, let alone make any profits.
The fans always appreciate a good film. But Disney and Marvel are in the business of making profits, and things aren’t looking good this year. They certainly didn’t expect or want this outcome. What makes it worse is the fact that none of the films intended to build toward the next Avengers have performed well, and that’s a major red flag. While Doomsday will likely earn a lot of money, it is also costing a significant amount of money, and the general audience’s growing indifference is starting to show.