Marvel seems to be going through a torrid time as of late. While they’ve had a few big hits—largely riding on nostalgia and banking on the star power of their A-list talent and superheroes that are still household names—2025 looks grimmer than ever.
Captain America: Brave New World was not only met with one of the worst receptions for an MCU movie to date (with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 48% and IMDb rating of 5.7), but it was also a massive box office flop. The film managed just $415 million worldwide, failing to reach its $425 million break-even point despite a $180 million production budget and a global opening weekend of $192 million with little to no competition in February.
Its commercial and critical reception may not only spell the end for Sam Wilson’s future solo films but has likely further damaged a brand that’s already tested audiences’ patience and trust. Even Thunderbolts—which received glowing reviews from critics and overwhelming positive word of mouth—could only open to $162 million globally. And despite a solid second-week hold, it now seems very unlikely to hit the $400 million mark, especially with Final Destination: Bloodlines releasing globally this weekend and the amount of goodwill and buzz surrounding it has it grossing over north of $70 million. Mission: Impossible 8 is also arriving early in several key international markets this weekend.
While the good reception might have brought some faith back to the MCU, Fantastic Four—despite being the MCU’s biggest release of the year and the last one before the next Avengers movie—will likely rely heavily on critical reception and audience buzz if it hopes to reach the $650–700 million range globally.
That leaves Superman with a very real shot to become DC’s first win against Marvel at the box office since 2008’s The Dark Knight.
The only competition Superman now faces is The Fantastic Four: First Steps. And while F4 could still be successful, Superman has the potential to be a bigger event. The positive buzz and hype surrounding Superman have extended far beyond the usual comic book movie circles—especially from the general audiences that don’t spend all of their days demanding the Snyderverse to be restored on social media every day.
The days of the MCU making bank when they introduce a new character to their universe are over. Its only big hits this decade have been sequels to previously successful entries. The plethora of content they release across Disney+ and their habit of releasing two mediocre films annually have diluted the brand, as mentioned earlier. Superman, by contrast, benefits from a clean slate and represents a true fresh start.
Additionally, Superman is a far more recognizable and iconic character than the Fantastic Four, and seeing the Man of Steel return to his more hopeful and vibrant roots on the big screen for the first time in a while is likely to generate broader general audience interest than what could be yet another potentially formulaic MCU installment.
The quality pedigree is there, too. James Gunn has a proven track record when it comes to superhero films. The Guardians of the Galaxy trilogy remains one of the most consistent and beloved offerings in the MCU. His DC entries—The Suicide Squad and Peacemaker—were also well-received by both critics and audiences. Gunn himself is highly regarded in the industry and respected by both the press and fans alike.
Superman is well-positioned to generate strong word of mouth—possibly much stronger than Man of Steel, which isn’t a high bar to clear. With good reception, it’s entirely plausible that Superman could gross upwards of $650–700 million globally. Meanwhile, Fantastic Four could end up falling short of the $600 million mark.
The biggest challenge for Superman will be its release date—it debuts just one week after Jurassic World: Rebirth. Despite the poor critical reception of the last two Jurassic World entries, both films still managed to gross over $1 billion. That kind of box office power and longevity indicates Jurassic World will be the movie most general audiences will likely choose in early July, especially overseas.
On the other hand, Fantastic Four benefits from a much better release date. It gives Jurassic World time to breathe and settle, and just as importantly, it will most likely feature a cameo by Robert Downey Jr., which could directly set up Avengers: Doomsday. That alone could give Fantastic Four a better shot at pulling in general audiences, particularly those nostalgic for the MCU’s golden era.